PFT's Super Bowl picks

Reuters

On Friday, we made our Super Bowl picks on PFT Live, at the end of a show featuring Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew and Super Bowl XXXV-winning coach Brian Billick, now of FOX and NFL Network.

But since some of you still don't watch PFT Live on a regular basis (we know who you are), we decided it would make sense to put our official picks in print for the purposes of posterity.

And while I was tempted to disagree with Rosenthal simply for the purposes of having a chance to beat him, I decided in the end that I'd rather be right than victorious in a meaningless contest, which has even less meaning given that he won it this year.  And last year.  But not the year before that, primarily because we didn't do it.

Florio's take:  The Giants are the better team.  I made that same concession before the NFC title game, right before picking the 49ers to win.  It was the third straight time I'd picked against the Giants in the postseason.  I'd also picked them to lose to the Cowboys in Week 17.  And so I'm risking a Bradshaw-style berating if I do it again.

Apart from that reality, I can't see how the Patriots will effectively defend the Giants passing attack.  As Greg Cosell, executive producer of ESPN's NFL Matchup, predicted this week on PFT Live, the Pats likely will target Victor Cruz with a linebacker in the slot, who'll hit Cruz before rushing quarterback Eli Manning.  Similar attention likely will be given to Hakeem Nicks, which will create openings in the running game (something Mike Martz refused to exploit 10 years ago).  It also will make it easier to throw to guys like Jake Ballard and Mario Manningham.

On the other side of the ball, a depleted Rob Gronkowski could end up being a decoy, or perhaps a glorified offensive tackle, helping take the steam out of a pass rush that regularly put Tom Brady on his behind four years ago.  Brady will have to get rid of the ball faster, or the blockers will have to buy him more time.

Somehow, the Patriots remain favored to win.  And that comes from the perception that Brady and coach Bill Belichick will find a way.  That determination finds a significant boost from the memory of Myra Kraft, whose initials are stitched to the players' jerseys.  I've been saying for weeks that the desire to honor her in a proper way and to bring some temporary happiness to a still-grieving Robert Kraft will galvanize the locker room.  When I saw running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis touching the patch after scoring a touchdown against the Ravens two weeks ago, my pick for the Super Bowl had been made.

It won't be easy — it may even require overtime — but it's impossible to imagine anything other than the proper ending to this story.

Florio's pick:  Patriots 30, Giants 27.

Rosenthal's take: This Patriots team doesn't make a lot of sense. But they didn't make a lot of sense in 2001 when Antowain Smith was their starting running back or in 2003 when every game was game was close and Troy Brown was playing cornerback.

Bill Belichick was relaxed this week because he loves this team. He knows his defensive line is playing its best football and has an advantage against the Giants. He knows Tom Brady is ready for one more signature performance.

I wrote earlier this week that the Giants have the advantage if both teams played their absolute best. But teams don't play their best against the Patriots, especially when Belichick and Brady get a second chance at them.

Eli Manning is having a great year. He's not an all-time great.

Rosenthal's pick: Patriots 23, Giants 20.

The Washington Redskins had two quarterbacks who played in 2011:  Rex Grossman and John Beck.

And so they are trying to upgrade.  Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that the Redskins have had internal discussions about pursuing (surprise, surprise) Peyton Manning, Packers quarterback Matt Flynn, and Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton.

Flynn and Orton will be free agents in March.  Peyton likely will be too, and possibly sooner than that.

Per Schefter, they've also talked about possibly moving up to No. 2 in the draft, where they'd surely take whomever the Colts don't select at No. 1 overall.

If the Redskins get Manning, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan would have to find a way to adjust his style to Manning.  Kyle wants to control everything the quarterback does.  Peyton won't be thrilled about being micromanaged.  Given the choice between having strings on Beck and Grossman and a real-life Peytonnochio, Kyle shouldn't need Jiminy Cricket to help him make the right call.

Saturday was a tough day for those who just missed out on election to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Things don't figure to get much easier for Bill Parcells, Cris Carter, Charles Haley, Andre Reed and the other finalists who couldn't garner enough support to join those elected to the Hall. The ballot will add several big names next year, making it certain that some of those men will miss out on enshrinement once again.

The biggest names on the list are Larry Allen, Jonathan Ogden and Michael Strahan. Allen made seven All-Pro teams during his career with the Cowboys and was a member of the All-Decade team for both the 1990s and 2000s. Ogden joined him on the latter team and made nine All-Pro teams as one of the best left tackles the game has ever seen. Strahan was also on the All-Decade team for the 2000s, holds the single-season sack record and was the 2001 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. All three men have Super Bowl rings on top of those individual accolades and seem like good bets to wind up with yellow blazers in the future.

Once you throw in Warren Sapp, John Lynch, Steve McNair and Morten Andersen and any Seniors Committee candidates, you've got a ballot overstuffed with players who achieved great things during their NFL careers. The lack of transparency in Hall of Fame voting makes it hard to know how close some of the near misses came to getting elected or if they were even near misses in the first place. That makes it that much more difficult to predict who might be joining Curtis Martin, Chris Doleman, Willie Roaf, Dermontti Dawson, Cortez Kennedy and Jack Butler the Hall of Fame in New Orleans this time next year.

Once upon a time, Kurt Warner was Tom Coughlin's starting quarterback in New York.

The two men shared a very close relationship for a coach and player, talking privately several times a week in Coughlin's office. When Warner's time with the team was up, Coughlin asked for a favor.

“Go home and make a list of all the things you think I need to do better as a coach, and don't hold back,” Warner remembered Coughlin saying via the Newark Star-Ledger.

Warner took him up on the offer and wrote “page after page.”

“There were times when I was worried that I would hurt his feelings or damage our friendship,” Warner said. “But deep down I knew he'd never hold it against me as long as I did it with his best interests at heart.”

Coughlin said this week he still refers to Warner's words. Warner focused on Coughlin explaining to players his reasons for doing things. He asked Coughlin to connect to role players and stars alike.

It's worth noting that Coughlin may have changed less than the team around him. The Giants have learned to trust Coughlin implicitly.

“Let me ask you this: Do you think they question him for a second now?” Warner said.

Reuters

Giants G.M. Jerry Reese pointed out last week what a thin line there is between a successful season and a failure, noting that last year the Giants won 10 games and failed because they didn't make the playoffs, while this year the Giants are in the Super Bowl after winning only nine games in the regular-season.

The difference between a great year and a failure can be the difference between good luck and bad luck in a couple of crucial games. And the Giants know that this year, they've had some lucky breaks.

“Winning is about a good game plan and execution,” Giants center David Baas told the New York Times. “But it's also a little bit about luck.”

The New York Times detailed five different moments this season when lady luck gave the Giants a gift, close games that went the Giants' way but could have gone the other way with a different call or a different bounce of the ball. If the Giants take the Vince Lombardi Trophy tonight, that good luck will have played a part in it.

Of course, the Giants have also had some bad luck. For instance, in both of their games with the Packers — a regular-season loss and a postseason win — highly questionable calls went against them. It's not like the Giants have gotten all the breaks.

But sometimes, getting a few of the breaks is the difference between being in the Super Bowl and missing the playoffs. That was the case for the Giants this year.

Reuters

Everyone expects the Dolphins to be in the market for a new starting quarterback this offseason.

If he's available, Peyton Manning could well be at the top of their shopping list. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is “infatuated with the idea” of signing Manning should he part ways with the Colts. Per Jackson, Ross and the Dolphins believe they have a good chance at landing Manning because he owns a condo in South Beach.

Waiting to find out if Manning shares their infatuation and if he's physically able to lead the team could be a risk if the Dolphins choose to go that way. If the Manning watch goes much beyond the March 13th start of free agency, the Dolphins will be in danger of losing Matt Flynn, the best free agent that we know will be on the market, to another suitor. That risk is worth it for a healthy Manning, but the team will need to get creative if they want an upgrade on Matt Moore next season without either Flynn or Manning on their roster.

How long has Jack Butler been waiting to get into the Hall of Fame?

He played his last game in 1959, before 18 of the 32 current NFL head coaches were born, and his eligibility for the Hall of Fame began 48 years ago. In that time Butler watched all but one of the other players who joined him on the NFL's 50th Anniversary Team go into Canton without ever getting the call. The call finally came on Saturday as Butler was the one Seniors Committee nominee to earn election to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

“I never thought it would happen, but here I am!” said Butler after getting the news.

Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette‘s article about Butler's election has some information that makes it even clearer that Butler was playing in a very different football world than the one we live in right now. When he got to the Steelers as an undrafted free agent in 1951, Butler was a wide receiver. The team switched his position to defensive end before he finally settled in at cornerback.

A lot's been made about Julian Edelman switching sides for the Patriots this season, but can you imagine if he made a stop next to Vince Wilfork?

No, the Giants can't claim receiver Tiquan Underwood after the Patriots cut him on Saturday.

New England traditionally makes roster moves on Saturdays, primarily because no team can claim the player cut until Monday. The led the league in such moves.

We're not sure where Underwood will watch the game, but a lot of people are upset with the Patriots for making such a late move. Underwood is taking the release well.

“This Is Nothing But MOTIVATION,” Underwood wrote on Twitter. “I Been Thru A LOT…But There Are Ppl In This World w/ More Serious Problems So I Cant Hang The Head….Thank You Lord #Blessed . . . Good Luck To The New Enland Organization, The Coaches, & All My Teammates… #PatsNation.”

Underwood's release should only be criticized if defensive end Alex Silvestro is inactive after being promoted from the practice squad Saturday. We'd be very surprised if that was the case.

Bill Belichick has spoken in the past about the extra energy expended during the Super Bowl because of the magnitude of the game and the long halftime. He likes having extra defensive linemen. Silvestro will likely be active and the team must have already decided Underwood would be inactive for the game.

At some point after the first 30 minutes of Super Bowl XLVI concludes, the house lights at Lucas Oil Stadium will be dimmed and the Madonna mini-concert will commence.  Many of you have complained about the musical selection.  For those of you who choose to vote with your remotes, we have an alternative.

Leave the TV on NBC, and dial up the live stream of the game on NBCSports.com.

During the entire Madonna performance, Randy Moss of NFL Network and NBC and yours truly will be stationed with stick mics outside the Giants locker room, talking about what we had just seen and what we think will come in the final two quarters of the game.

Of course, we hope you'll dial up the live stream of the NBC coverage of the game and the pregame on NBCSports.com throughout the afternoon and evening.  Rosenthal and I will be chatting it up in the right rail, and you'll be able to choose your camera angle while watching Super Bowl XLVI.

Bill Parcells fell short of election to the Pro Football Hall of Fame on Saturday, but it looks like he still might find his way to the induction ceremonies in Canton this summer.

Curtis Martin was elected and the running back, who played for Parcells in New England and with the Jets, hinted that he was going to ask his former coach might be the man he chooses to present him for induction. In the days leading up to the vote, Martin said that he would delay his own induction if it meant Parcells got it but things wound up working the other way around. On a conference call following the announcement of the voting, Martin discussed Parcells, who has often called Martin one of his favorite players, once again.

“I told him that I would call him after the show was over, but there's no one more befitting to introduce me or present me at the Hall of Fame.  Parcells has meant everything to my career.  There's God and then there's Parcells, as far as the meaning they've had on my career.”

The outpouring of praise for Parcells was indicative of the entire conference call. Martin spent more time talking about his old coach, his mother, the owners of the teams he played for, his teammates and the fans than he talked about himself. That fits for a player who has been described as unselfish by just about everyone who ever coached or covered him.

During his playing career, Cortez Kennedy didn't get to experience many great seasons. The Seahawks made him the third overall pick in the 1990 NFL draft, and the Seahawks stunk in the 1990s, and so he experienced a lot more losing than winning.

But while Kennedy only played in the postseason once and never experienced the ultimate team accomplishment, on Saturday evening he found out that he has been given the ultimate individual honor: He was selected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

“It was one of the greatest feelings in the world when my name got called out,” Kennedy told the Olympian.

Kennedy added, “But it was a long process” — this was Kennedy's fourth year as a Hall of Fame finalist. With 17 finalists every year and a maximum of seven new Hall of Famers inducted, more men have their hearts broken on the Saturday before the Super Bowl than have the greatest feeling in the world.

It's hardly Pulitzer-worthy, but we nevertheless need to report what we know.

Per a league source, Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski will play Sunday (wait, there's a game Sunday?) despite a high ankle sprain suffered against the Ravens in the AFC title game.

As agent Drew Rosenhaus told NBC SportsTalk this week, Gronkowski wouldn't play if it wasn't the Super Bowl.  And Gronkowski may end up having surgery after the game.

The real question for tomorrow's purposes is whether and to what extent he'll be effective.  The Giants surely will test the ankle early, using physicality at the line — and possibly after the whistle.

The biggest challenge could come during the 29-minute halftime, at which time the ankle could swell and stiffen.

We essentially knew Aaron Rodgers would win the league's MVP award on Saturday night because he was chosen the first team All-Pro quarterback over Drew Brees in a landslide.

Rogers won the MVP award by nearly the same vote: 48-2.  (It was 47.5 to 2.5 for the All Pro vote.)

Brees won the Offensive Player of the Year award. Separating those two awards is not something that makes a lot of sense, but we suppose it's a way to recognize two offensive players for their achievements.

Rodgers was the better player and the more valuable player throughout the course of the season. Brees was absolutely sensational, especially late in the season, but Rodgers was playing at a level we have rarely seen for most of the year. The last few weeks of the year don't make the first three months go away.

You know it's a strong year for MVP candidates when Tom Brady didn't even get a vote in a season where he finished with the second most amount of yards in NFL history.

The league is in great shape right now for many reasons. One of them: Quarterback play has never been better.

The Associated Press loved Saints quarterback Drew Brees‘ season so much that it awarded him 43-of-50 votes for 2011 Offensive Player of the Year, compared to Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers‘ seven.

Rodgers figures to have a better shot at NFL MVP.

In 2011, Brees broke Dan Marino's single-season passing record, which had stood for 27 years. Brees also set league records for completions (450) and completion rate (71.6 percent).

Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow did not receive any votes.

The football world is about to get hectic over the next 36 hours. While there are a few minutes to spare this Saturday evening, I wanted to say thanks to the city of Indianapolis for a great week.

The city and Super Bowl planners went above and beyond putting on a great show. It's easily been the smoothest of the five Super Bowls which I've attended. The town had a ton of energy, and it's set up perfectly for a week like this.

The hospitality went beyond officially sanctioned events. Indy's own Jason Whitlock hosted all comers for some complimentary barbecue at his father's Masterpiece Lounge bar on Saturday, located far beyond where Super Bowl shuttles travel.

Whitlock made sure to tell everyone white people were welcome, so MDS, Mrs. MDS, and myself made our way across town. Whitlock greeted me by saying he thought I was MDS' kid. It was almost like Florio was there.

(Florio was too busy at rehearsal for the “Super Bowl Pregame show on NBC.” Weak excuse.)

Whitlock's dad apparently only cooks a handful of times every year, but he made some of the best ribs I've ever tasted. It put a personal touch on this exhausting, fun week building up to the game.

It wouldn't surprise me if we're back at the Masterpiece Lounge during another Super Bowl week sometime down the road.

The Associated Press announced Saturday evening that Terrell Suggs of the Ravens is its 2011 winner of the Defensive Player of the Year award.

Suggs held off Vikings defensive end Jared Allen, receiving 21 votes compared to Allen's 14. Also receiving votes were 49ers defenders Justin Smith, Navorro Bowman, and Patrick Willis, along with Packers cornerback Charles Woodson, and Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul.

Woodson's inclusion was surprising. Perhaps more surprising was the fact that Pierre-Paul didn't make a stronger run at Suggs. Suggs did have a beastly regular season, recording 70 tackles, 14 sacks, seven forced fumbles, and two interceptions. Allen led the NFL with 22 sacks, chipping in four fumbles forced.

Pierre-Paul was credited with more tackles (86) than both Suggs and Allen. He registered 16.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.